Re: Software Engineering and Dreamers

[dewar@merv.cs.nyu.edu (Robert Dewar)]

Martin said

<<Well, the reason is called Occam's razor.  Simply stated, given two 
theories that make the same predictions, favor the simpler.  Unfortunately
deciding which is simpler is based on personal bias.  So, although you
might think invisible crocodiles aren't much of a leap of faith =), most
others probably disagree.
 
--Martin
 >>


Actually I don't think there is any issue of personal bias here. The two
theories, as I noted before are

Newton
newton + crocodiles

It is objectively clear in this case which of these two is simpler. A similar
situation arises if you consider the contrast between theories based on:

1) standard "laws" of physics
2) standard "laws" of physics presided over by a God who is free to change them

These have similar predictive powers, but on a purely scientific basis, it
does not increase the predictive powers to choose 2, and it adds complexity,
so we don't generally explicitly choose 2 when we select a theory.

Nevertheless, many scientists do in fact select 2 for their own personal
belief systems, and that does not particularly affect what they do, but
this is in the realm of faith, not science.

As far as I can tell, the crocodiles are playing *exactly* the role that
God plays in a more conventional discussion. In other words, the bottom
line on the crocodiles is that you are free to believe in them if you want,
but it is irrelevant from a scientific point of view to explicitly include
the presence of crocodiles in the theory.