From: "Niocláisín Cóilín de Ghlostéir" <Spamassassin@irrt.De>
Subject: Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code
Date: Fri, 15 Aug 2025 02:26:16 +0200 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <a06409f9-1ece-ec11-7371-2b776d3b3dd7@irrt.De> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <107l8fc$l3ff$1@dont-email.me>
[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 11626 bytes --]
On Thu, 14 Aug 2025, Kevin Chadwick wrote:
"Seems to be a 404 not found"
Dear Mister Chadwick,
I had also gotten a 404 error each time for this webpage (but I have
successfully retrieved this webpage as I explain below).
I did not remark about it because I actually remarked about "code
written in the C language that isn't even commented", as complained by
Rick Newbie.
As for accessing old, badly presented ex-webpages including this 404
ex-webpage in question . . .
HTTP://web.Archive.org
is a possibility for a well behaved ex-webpage. Some badly behaved
examples do not work well with e.g. a normal, bad, GUI webbrowser. This is
one such example. So instead w3m can rescue us as follows . . .
w3m HTTP://web.Archive.org/web/20200516145237https://ChrisVonCsefalvay.com/2020/05/09/imperial-covid-model
said inter alia:
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|"[. . .], the computational epidemiologist who has advised the [. . .]|
|government on COVID-19 related steps until his recent resignation. I |
|have previously been a staunch defender of [. . . his] approach – his |
|model was (and is) theoretically sound, and probably as good as such |
|models will ever get. [. . .] |
| |
|And looking at the code, that raises some extremely serious |
|questions. I would like to explore some of these issues, but will not |
|go into a detailed analysis of the code, for one reason – the code |
|eventually (and reluctantly) shared by [. . .] is almost |
|definitely not the code used to generate forecasts for [. . .] |
|Government. We know that at some point, Github [. . .] |
|has been involved in cleaning up some of the |
|quality issues. [. . .] obstinately resists releasing |
|original code – both via Github and under a valid FOIA request that |
|[. . .] lawyers are entirely misinterpreting.1) We can, however, |
|safely assume from the calibre of the people who have worked on the |
|improved version that whatever was there was worse. |
| |
|The quality issue |
|First of all, the elephant in the room: code |
|quality. It is very difficult to look at the [. . .] code with any |
|understanding of software engineering and conclude that this is good, |
|or even tolerable. [. . .] attempts a very thin apologia |
|for this: |
| |
|[Indentation apparently as a block quotation:] |
| I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the|
| pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures|
| against COVID-19. To explain the background – I wrote the code|
| (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu|
| pandemics…|
| |
| — [. . .] March 22, 2020|
|[. . . indentation apparently as a block quotation.] |
| |
|That, sir, is not a |
|feature. It’s not even a bug. It’s somewhere between negligence and |
|unintentional but grave scientific misconduct. |
| |
|For those who are not in the computational fields: “my code is too |
|complicated for you to get it” is not an acceptable excuse. It is the |
|duty of everyone who releases code to document it – within the |
|codebase or outside (or a combination of the two). Greater minds |
|[. . .] have a tough enough time |
|navigating a large code base, and especially where you have |
|collaborators, it is not unusual to need a second or two to remember |
|what a particular function is doing or what the arguments should be |
|like. Or, to put it more bluntly: for thirteen years, taxpayer funding|
|[. . .] and all it produced was |
|code that violated one of the most fundamental precepts of good |
|software development – intelligibility. |
| |
|The policy issue |
|[. . .] I don’t, of course, know whether that is |
|what indeed happened, but I doubt anybody would want to trust their |
|lives to thousands of lines of cobbled-together code. |
| |
|[. . .] |
| |
|The community issue |
|Perhaps the biggest issue is, however, the |
|response to people who dare question the refusal by [. . .] to |
|release the original source code. This is best summarised by the |
|responses of their point man on Github, who is largely spending his |
|time locking issues and calling people dumb & toxic: |
| |
|[An apparent quotation which does not prove what it is apparently |
|supposed to demonstrate . . .] |
| |
|It may merit attention that [. . .] is taxpayer-funded – the self-same|
|taxpayer who is deemed unfit to even behold what he paid for. This is |
|the worst of ‘closed science’, something many scientists (myself |
|included) have worked hard to dismantle over the years. Publicly |
|funded science imposes a moral obligation to present its results to |
|the funder (that is, the taxpayer), and it should perhaps not be up to|
|the judgment of a junior tech support developer to determine what the |
|public is, or is not, fit to see. Perhaps as an epidemiologist, I take|
|special umbrage at the presumption that everyone who wishes to see the|
|original code base would be “confused” – maybe I should write to |
|reassure Dr [. . .] that I do understand a little about |
|epidemiology. It is, after all, what I do. |
| |
|The science issue |
|None of these issues are, of course, anywhere near |
|as severe as what this means – a massive leap backwards, erosion of |
|trust and a complete disclaimer of accountability by publicly funded |
|scientists. |
| |
|There is a moral obligation for epidemiologists to work for the common|
|good – and that implies an obligation of openness and honesty. I am |
|reminded of the medical paternalism that characterised Eastern Bloc |
|medicine, where patients were rarely told what ailed them and never |
|received honest answers. To see this writ large amidst a pandemic by |
|what by all accounts (mine included) has been deemed one of the |
|world’s best computational epidemiology units is not so much |
|infuriating as it is deeply saddening. |
| |
|One of my friends, former Navy SEAL Jocko Willink, counseled in his |
|recent book to “take the high ground, or the high ground will take |
|you”. Epidemiology had the chance to seize and hold the narrative, |
|through openness, transparency and honesty about the forecasts |
|made. It had the chance, during this day in the sun of ours, to show |
|the public just how powerful our analytical abilities have |
|become. Instead, petty academic jealousy, obsessions with |
|institutional prestige and an understandable but still |
|disproportionate fear of being ‘misinterpreted’ by people who ‘do not |
|understand epidemiology’ have given the critics of forecasting and |
|computational epidemiology fertile breeding ground. They are entirely |
|justified now in criticising any forecasts that come out of the |
|[. . .] model – even if the forecasts are correct. There will no |
|doubt be public health consequences to the loss of credibility the |
|entire profession has suffered, and in the end, it’s all due to the |
|outdated ‘proprietary’ attitudes and the airs of superiority by a few |
|insulated scientists who, somehow, somewhere, left the track of |
|serving public health and humanity for the glittering prizes offered |
|elsewhere. With their abandonment of the high road, our entire |
|profession’s claim to the public trust might well be forfeited – in a |
|sad twist of irony, at a time that could well have been the Finest |
|Hour of computational epidemiology. |
| |
|[. . .] |
| |
|(c) Chris von Csefalvay, 2015-. For syndication and reprint |
|queries, please use the contact form." |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
A theme in
HTTP://web.Archive.org/web/20200516145237https://ChrisVonCsefalvay.com/2020/05/09/imperial-covid-model
which is broader than diseases and software is similar to
HTTP://Gloucester.Insomnia247.NL/Evil_which_is_so-called_science/
An ex-website of "the Journal of Scientific Practice and Integrity" used
to use bad Scholastica so it is too hard to archive. HTTrack; lftp; Pavuk;
Wget Version 1.21.3; and Wget2 Version 1.99.1 all failed to archive it so
I manually archived it:
HTTP://Gloucester.Insomnia247.NL/Evil_which_is_so-called_science/Journal_of_Scientific_Practice_and_Integrity/
My condolences to persons who need to archive bigger Scholastica websites!
Archives other than Archive.org might also had archived
HTTPS://ChrisVonCsefalvay.com/2020/05/09/imperial-covid-model
- I did not check. I hyperlink to webpages about many other archives
websites in the last sentence of
HTTP://Gloucester.Insomnia247.NL/Evil_which_is_so-called_science/devastating_harassment_and_bullying/maladministration_action_or_inaction_of_a_serious_nature_contrary_to_law_or_unreasonable_unjust_oppressive_discriminatory_improper.HTM
If one wants to manually archive something without needing it to be still
available after this century, then I would recommend
HTTPS://Archive.Li
prev parent reply other threads:[~2025-08-15 0:26 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 74+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
2020-05-11 18:49 Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code Rick Newbie
2020-05-11 20:27 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:12 ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-12 20:11 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 20:53 ` Dmitry A. Kazakov
2020-05-12 21:54 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 22:15 ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 11:07 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 13:23 ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 13:45 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 14:58 ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 15:31 ` Dmitry A. Kazakov
2020-05-13 15:48 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:45 ` gautier_niouzes
2020-05-12 15:56 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:55 ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-12 19:16 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 21:27 ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-12 22:20 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 22:39 ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-13 9:36 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 13:52 ` Optikos
2020-05-13 14:05 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 18:58 ` Optikos
2020-05-13 20:29 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 21:02 ` Optikos
2020-05-13 21:48 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 22:13 ` Optikos
2020-05-13 9:54 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 0:25 ` Olivier Henley
2020-05-15 13:23 ` Optikos
2020-05-16 5:01 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-05-28 21:45 ` Optikos
2020-06-11 17:28 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 17:36 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 22:43 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-12 12:10 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 12:34 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-12 17:36 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-21 9:18 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-22 13:36 ` Olivier Henley
2020-05-16 22:31 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-16 23:54 ` Optikos
2020-05-17 15:41 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-17 17:38 ` Optikos
2020-05-17 18:00 ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 20:56 ` Optikos
2020-05-17 21:20 ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 21:45 ` Optikos
2020-05-18 7:34 ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 19:20 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-17 21:30 ` Optikos
2020-05-24 21:04 ` Bob Goddard
2020-05-31 15:01 ` Azathoth Hastur
2020-06-09 6:30 ` gautier_niouzes
2020-06-11 15:35 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 15:49 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 18:41 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 19:58 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 20:41 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 20:47 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 21:34 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 21:47 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 21:39 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 23:14 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 23:30 ` Jere
2020-06-11 23:55 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 0:07 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 0:42 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-12 11:08 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 7:03 ` gautier_niouzes
2025-08-13 16:37 ` Niocláisín Cóilín de Ghlostéir
2025-08-14 18:04 ` Kevin Chadwick
2025-08-15 0:26 ` Niocláisín Cóilín de Ghlostéir [this message]
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