Re: and visual library once again

["Steve Whalen" <SteveWhalen001@hotmail.com>]

tmoran@acm.org wrote:
> >I'm actually a big supporter of the GPL and look forward to the day (5
> >to 100 years from now) when all (non-classified) computer programs will
> >be GPL'd or it's future equivalent.  However, in the present, there are
>   The economists point out that to the extent programs are "public goods"
> the market will undersupply them, leaving it to government or other
> organizations not guided by the market to pay programmers.  So 5 to 100
> years from now programmers will be employees of government or other large
> institutions/organizations?

Between 5 and 50 years from now hopefully we'll have a gradual
transition to more "shared" code as businesses realize it's to their
advantage to spend less on code that does NOT differentiate their
business (i.e. all the utility stuff like compilers and word processors
and accounting systems and inventory systems, etc.). The only people
business will pay to program will be working on the relatively short
list of things that actually give one company competitive advantage
over another. Some of this "shared code" will be written by paid
programmers for various forms of consortium that companies pay to
develop and enhance the commodity infrastructure software because they
can't gain competitive advantage from spending their own money on it.

Between 50 and 100 years from now there will be a massive deflationary
cycle as powerful computers combined with cheap electricity and
increasingly capable robots eliminate the cost of "labor" from the
economy.  Since the price performance of robots will begin to follow
that of the computers that drive them, all the basics (food, clothing,
shelter) will have their costs driven down toward zero.  At some point
the government will tax the robots and pay everyone $500 a month which
will be more than enough to live on.  You will be able to choose to
program, or to watch TV, or to garden, or to serve others, or do
nothing, just like in Star Trek <g>. Then programming will mostly be
done by people who do it because they love it, because nobody has to
work just to survive.

This projection of course comes with a money back guarantee <g>.

Steve

P.S. Also, the economics of software are very different from other
economics, because the cost of production is zero (i.e. once a program
is written it can be shared and/or run by an unlimited number of people
or companies for no additional cost).

--

"In an efficient market, price equals marginal cost. Marginal cost of
software: zero."