From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.4 (2020-01-24) on polar.synack.me X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-0.3 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00, REPLYTO_WITHOUT_TO_CC autolearn=no autolearn_force=no version=3.4.4 X-Google-Language: ENGLISH,ASCII-7-bit X-Google-Thread: 10ad19,23963231b5359f74 X-Google-Attributes: gid10ad19,public X-Google-Thread: 1073c2,23963231b5359f74 X-Google-Attributes: gid1073c2,public X-Google-Thread: 103376,23963231b5359f74 X-Google-Attributes: gid103376,public X-Google-Thread: 101deb,23963231b5359f74 X-Google-Attributes: gid101deb,public X-Google-Thread: 107a89,23963231b5359f74 X-Google-Attributes: gid107a89,public X-Google-Thread: 10a146,23963231b5359f74 X-Google-Attributes: gid10a146,public X-Google-ArrivalTime: 2001-06-08 16:52:18 PST Path: archiver1.google.com!newsfeed.google.com!sn-xit-02!supernews.com!newsfeed.direct.ca!look.ca!newshub2.rdc1.sfba.home.com!news.home.com!news1.rdc1.bc.home.com.POSTED!not-for-mail From: Roedy Green Newsgroups: comp.lang.ada,comp.lang.awk,comp.lang.clarion,comp.lang.java.programmer,comp.lang.pl1,comp.lang.vrml Subject: mismatch between actual threat and perceived threat Organization: Canadian Mind Products Reply-To: roedy@mindprod.com Message-ID: References: <9fgagu$6ae$1@nh.pace.co.uk> <9fjgha$blf$1@nh.pace.co.uk> <35mqhtkdfma2rggv1htcaq6vfn2ihs67a1@4ax.com> <9fli1b$4aa$1@nh.pace.co.uk> Organization: LJK Software <9folnd$1t8$1@nh.pace.co.uk> <3B204C82.C2681D79@home.com> <9fqla6$n3o$1@nh.pace.co.uk> X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 1.8/32.548 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Date: Fri, 08 Jun 2001 23:52:15 GMT NNTP-Posting-Host: 24.76.128.193 X-Complaints-To: abuse@home.net X-Trace: news1.rdc1.bc.home.com 992044335 24.76.128.193 (Fri, 08 Jun 2001 16:52:15 PDT) NNTP-Posting-Date: Fri, 08 Jun 2001 16:52:15 PDT Xref: archiver1.google.com comp.lang.ada:8466 comp.lang.awk:2938 comp.lang.clarion:21506 comp.lang.java.programmer:74921 comp.lang.pl1:938 comp.lang.vrml:3678 Date: 2001-06-08T23:52:15+00:00 List-Id: On Fri, 8 Jun 2001 09:52:04 -0400, "Marin David Condic" wrote or quoted : >The proper algorithm ought to be to sort on the number of deaths per >anum & get them in descending order. Start at the top of the list and work >your way down. But safety consciousness works the other way around. The rarer a catastrophe, the more it grabs the public imagination, say a child strangulation, or a contaminated Tylenol pill and therefore the greatest concern about prevention. Ordinary things like drowning, fires, floods, earthquakes, hunger, drug overdose, being shot, being beaten up, getting HIV, being killed in a car crash, get less attention. I maintain web pages about HIV and safe sex and risk factors. http://mindprod.com/safesex.html People write me terribly worried about things they have done that have much less risk of harming them than being hit by lightning. Yet they will paralyse themselves with fear over the remote possibility. In terms of absolute risk people are not afraid "enough" of speed. We have a fear of heights, but not a fear of the corresponding speed that you would attain from dropping from that height. You see Bush worried about Iraq attacking the US with an ICBM, while ignoring the ease Saddam could paralyse the Internet or attack biologically. In Java, you see great concern about theoretical holes in the Applet Sandbox, but very little worry about ACCIDENTAL errors programmers make. Security experts further ignore that the sandbox is a Maginot line any self respecting hacker would simply bypass, attacking via the back door of Windows instead. Are there websites that mathematically estimate the ACTUAL risks of all the potential disasters that people worry about? I tend to worry most about global disasters, ones that could potentially destroy civilisation and my beloved computers and cetacea. So on my list of worries are global warming, environmental collapse, nuclear war, overpopulation, biological warfare and the earth being hit by an asteroid. My girlfriend tends to worry most about earthquakes and tidal waves. Major disasters of that sort are expected some time in the next century where I live. The Azores are in for a major earthquake and tidal wave what would wipe out the entire east coast of the US, any time now, geologically speaking. There is not much anyone can do to avoid such disaster but move to high ground. Life never avoids exploiting a niche, even when that niche is temporary. Long ago, I decided to put most of my life effort into helping computers evolve. I figured that if computers could get very very good at prediction, people would not have to wait until it was too late before they took appropriate action to avert global catastrophes. They would learn to act in enlightened self interest with computers assuring them new approaches were safe. For more detail, please look up the key words mentioned in this post in the Java Glossary at: http://mindprod.com/gloss.html If you don't see what you were looking for, complain! or send your contribution for the glossary. -- Roedy Green, Canadian Mind Products Custom computer programming since 1963. Ready to take on new work.