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From: "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de>
Subject: Re: Ada noob here! Is Ada widely used?
Newsgroups: comp.lang.ada
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Date: Sun, 6 Jun 2010 19:22:52 +0200
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Date: 2010-06-06T19:22:51+02:00
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On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 14:58:20 +0100, Simon Wright wrote:

> "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> writes:
> 
>> On Sun, 06 Jun 2010 11:22:41 +0100, Simon Wright wrote:
>>
>>> "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de> writes:
>>> 
>>>> 2. Your confidence describes you, it does not the program. It fact, it
>>>> is like - I give my word, it works. Fine, but why anybody should trust
>>>> my word?
>>> 
>>> Because you are a gentleman? (sorry -- been re-watching Lost In Austen!)
>>
>> A measure of being gentleman?
> 
> This was meant to be a joke, apologies. More-or-less in this sense:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gentleman#Gentleman_by_conduct
> 
>>> Because you have given your word in the past and it has proved
>>> trustworthy?
>>
>> Proved how, means, measures? BTW, statistics isn't applicable here either.
>> Let you write the same program 100 times. What is the probability that you
>> won't make a mistake X? It is not a probability. The code deviation after
>> stripping factors of learning, tiredness, disgust, rebellion is null.
> 
> 'proved' might not have been the right word. I meant, if you are the
> release manager for a project and receive an updated package from a
> developer, you'll have a degree of trust in the suitability of the
> update which depends on how reliable that developer has been in the
> past.

This all does not go beyond confidence factors (AKA truth values). There is
no way to estimate a confidence factor otherwise than by an expert poll.
The ways evidences are combined are quite ad-hoc. Now, how to translate
this into decision making?

Input: confidence 0.78
Output: the project will be completed in 2 months

Input: confidence 0.78
Output: next engine maintenance is required after 462 flight hours

-- 
Regards,
Dmitry A. Kazakov
http://www.dmitry-kazakov.de