From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.4 (2020-01-24) on polar.synack.me X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-0.3 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,LOTS_OF_MONEY, REPLYTO_WITHOUT_TO_CC autolearn=no autolearn_force=no version=3.4.4 X-Google-Language: ENGLISH,ASCII-7-bit X-Google-Thread: 103376,60e2922351e0e780 X-Google-Attributes: gid103376,public X-Google-ArrivalTime: 2003-11-21 08:32:53 PST Path: archiver1.google.com!news2.google.com!fu-berlin.de!uni-berlin.de!adsl-213-200-246-247.cybernet.CH!not-for-mail From: Vinzent 'Gadget' Hoefler Newsgroups: comp.lang.ada Subject: Re: OT: Nuclear Waste (Was Re-Marketing Ada) Date: Fri, 21 Nov 2003 17:31:10 +0100 Organization: JeLlyFish software Message-ID: References: <3FB3751D.5090809@noplace.com> <1069092089.51926@master.nyc.kbcfp.com> <1069341262.907029@master.nyc.kbcfp.com> <2ZudnTAS4uD62yCiRVn-tw@comcast.com> Reply-To: v.hoefler@acm.org NNTP-Posting-Host: adsl-213-200-246-247.cybernet.ch (213.200.246.247) Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-Trace: news.uni-berlin.de 1069432372 60980299 213.200.246.247 (16 [175126]) X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 1.8/32.548 Xref: archiver1.google.com comp.lang.ada:2820 Date: 2003-11-21T17:31:10+01:00 List-Id: Robert I. Eachus wrote: >Vinzent 'Gadget' Hoefler wrote: > >> There are still a lot of "might"s, "possible"s and "probable"s. Can >> you "guarantee"? At least in the famous five-nines-range we are trying >> to achieve in critical software? > >You still don't get it do you. I admit, I don't have the insight to really judge the problem. > The probability that a genetically=20 >modified food has not already occured naturally somewhere is small. Yes. But what is the probability that this mutation survives for at least a couple of generations? > The=20 >probability that a GM food that has an evolutionary advantage will not=20 >eventually be producted by random, natural mutations is zero. Well, but what is the evolutionary advantage of wheat with more and bigger grains? It is the perfect food, so it will get eaten before it can spread its seeds even further. So it would disappear very quickly. ;-) > Every day=20 >nature does millions of genetic experiments and immediately releases the= =20 >resulting species into the wild. Yes, of course. This is the random generator. But AFAICS it is sort of uncontrolled (this only applies to the first result). If the new species has advantages, it will survive. If not, it won't. But does that process really apply to everything we are trying to achieve in that area? What is the probability that nature actually sees the advantage in something only we would call an advantage? >So for every million dollars we spend on finding and controlling new=20 >'flu variants, how much should we spend on preventing GM food adverse=20 >effects? Another million, I'd suggest. :-) > The only prediction I=20 >can be confident about is that in the future there will be another new=20 >disease like SARS that will be worse. Worse in the view of a human being, yes. Let me put it this way: What exactly would be the advantage of a human being that is resistant against all sort of diseases and lives for 500+ years? Probably we as human beings would call that an advantage, but IMO it would cause significant problems on the whole world population of every other species. If nature would produce something like that it would cancel itself out sooner or later. > How much effort should be spent=20 >on containing the next SARS than on the possibility that some GM food=20 >plant will cause upset stomachs? The real answer is that the developer=20 >of the GM food that hypothetically causes upset stomachs is going to=20 >consign it to the circular file before it ever becomes a problem. I'm really not concerned about upset stomachs from a genetically modified tomato. I'm just thinking a little bit about possible consequences. And as I said I don't have the insight to tell what's right and what's wrong here. >No regulation required. Agreed. Evolution will do nicely. :-> Vinzent. --=20 np: Nightwish - End of all Hope