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Date: 6 Sep 93 01:12:36 GMT
From: agate!howland.reston.ans.net!usc!venice!gumby.dsd.trw.com!truffula.fp.trw
.com!trwacs!erwin@ucbvax.Berkeley.EDU  (Harry Erwin)
Subject: Re: Why Ada has seven years to thrive or die
Message-ID: <26e2q4$9b0@truffula.fp.trw.com>
List-Id: <comp.lang.ada>

In article <1993Aug31.132355.967@sei.cmu.edu> firth@sei.cmu.edu
(Robert Firth) writes:
>In article <CCMv60.Bux@world.std.com> srctran@world.std.com
>(Gregory Aharonian) writes:
>>		   PRECENTAGE OF USERS ADOPTING
>>		    OBJECT ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY
>>
>>			1994		 2%
>>			1995		11%
>>			1996		34%
>>			1997		53%
>>			1998		71%
>>			1999		80%
>>			2000		88%
>

This is a pretty standard distribution for the acceptance of an innovation
over time (logistic function). Similar patterns are present in the
statistics of conversion to Islam in Visigothic Spain and in the emergence
of industrial technologies in 19th century England. The continued low
level of acceptance of Ada even in the mandated world indicates that the
collapse of the military threat will probably result in the disappearance
of this (and similar) technologies except where its advantages overcome
its known economic weaknesses.

Cheers,
-- 
Harry Erwin
Internet: erwin@trwacs.fp.trw.com
Working on Freeman nets....