From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.5-pre1 (2020-06-20) on ip-172-31-74-118.ec2.internal X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=0.8 required=3.0 tests=BAYES_50 autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no version=3.4.5-pre1 Date: 4 Dec 92 10:30:33 GMT From: ogicse!flop.ENGR.ORST.EDU!gaia.ucs.orst.edu!umn.edu!csus.edu!netcom.com!m cgregor@uunet.uu.net (Scott Mcgregor) Subject: Re: DoD and NIST undermining commercial CASE industry Message-ID: <1992Dec4.103033.29994@netcom.com> List-Id: In article <1992Dec3.093920.19673@sei.cmu.edu> firth@sei.cmu.edu (Robert Firth) writes: >However, of the competitors, PCTE has the most diverse support in >the global market; if you accept Emeraude as a realistic "proof of >concept", then I can't see any potential competitor displacing it >on technical grounds. As Robert points out (with his QUERTY example) it rarely is technical grounds that causes displacement. It is more likely because another solution becomes a de facto solution. That's likely to be because of an important vendor making it standard (e.g. Sun's NFS), the move to a new major platform with extant solutions (e.g. the moves from VMS to Unix changed the importance of DECnet vs. TCP/IP. And lastly, sometimes these things are end runs. The engines don't matter until you can buy an off the lot car that has one standard--then what matters is that it is the standard engine not that there are better alternative engines for which there are no cars. This is the grave risk to PCTE *AND* ATIS until there are more end user environments in place that rely on them. >Again I agree - but this seems to me the critical issue. The key problem >is not the lack of end user solutions, but the lack of the "enabling >technologies" that will open the door to end user solutions - solutions >built by numerous third parties, competitively, but all with a high >degree of compatibility and interoperability. > >As a poor analogy, consider PostScript (TM). This is an enabling technology >that alows you to buy any of a dozen machines, drawing programs, printers >and display units, plug them together, and do useful work. That's the >kind of rationale behind PCTE, and I think it's the critical step in >allowing us similarly to "mix and match" our software development tools. Consider that there WERE and ARE today other alternatives to PostScript. It is an enablying technology. But it is not that it *theoretically* can allow you to connect any of a dozen machines, printers, programs, etc. The alternatives share this theoretical possibility. What PostScript has going for it is that it works this way *in practice*--i.e. that there are end user solutions to allow useful work. The real risk with PCTE and ATIS is that they don't have such an installed base of end users benefiting yet. This leaves both vulnerable to the next solution, even one less technically correct, but which in practices solves real end user problems for many people. >Well, is PCTE at the point the VHS de-facto standard reached, where any >attempt to compete will go the way of Betamax? In my view, yes, but as >always feel free to disagree. I don't think so. But primarily because PCTE and ATIS are at the level the scarcity that VHS and Betamax were BEFORE home VCRs were common. Note too that VHS is not the clear winner for all time--with the growth of the handicam market the smaller formats have beat out the larger formats. One would think that VHS-C would have an advantage due to compatability, but Sony's 8mm is doing better (so far). When HDTV comes around all these things could be lost in the dust. Is the future in computing any less uncertain? What will be the implication of the new OO O/S's like NeXTstep, Taligent Pink, et. al.? What role with Windows/NT successors play? What are the implications of massively parallel processors, palm tops, and another factor of four increase in price performance in the next 3 years, a factor of sixteen in six (application of Moore's Law). It is easy to displace technologies with installed bases in the hundreds and thousands. Much harder to displace technologies that millions of end users rely on. I don't mean to imply that PCTE and ATIS can't win, just that the odds are similar to weather prediction. I still remember when it was ASSUMED that OS/2 would be dominant over MS-DOS by now. But those predictions were made when OS/2 was had as few end users as PCTE and ATIS. I think this is why CASE vendors and hardware vendors are playing it cautiosly: verbally committing to the standards "when they mature" (which means when they become pervasive in the market and they can't sell their product without them), but not actively making their products crucially dependent on either quite yet. Markets are fascinating things, aren't they? -- Scott L. McGregor mcgregor@netcom.com President tel: 408-985-1824 Prescient Software, Inc. fax: 408-985-1936 3494 Yuba Avenue San Jose, CA 95117-2967 Prescient Software sells Merge Ahead, the tool for Merging Text or Code and offers consulting & training in project management and design for usability.